Today's selection is Scorpio Rising, running in the 13:40 at Worcester, the Fbc Manby Bowdler 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Steeple Chase, a Class 3 over 2 miles 4 furlongs on good ground worth £8,169 to the winner. He's a 6-year-old gelding trained by Olly Murphy, ridden by Sean Bowen, and goes off at 15/8.
Form and class. His form line reads 1-1-1-1-7, oldest to most recent: four wins in a row, then a seventh last time out. The Expert View calls him "a leading threat," notes he has won four of his last five and says he has already run over today's trip and going. His official rating is 137, a solid figure. That's a genuinely strong winning sequence, but the most recent run is the one that matters most here, and it was a clear defeat. It's also worth noting that the Expert View describes him as a leading threat, not as the one to beat, which is more cautious wording than we've seen on some recent cards.
Connections. Olly Murphy trains from Wilmcote in Warwickshire, and the yard's 14-day figure is 24%, with 8 winners from 33 runners. That's a strong return from a decent sample. Sean Bowen is a top jump jockey and a strong booking.
The Honest Assessment. Four things stand out, and the Expert View itself names three of them as "the clear worry." The first is the layoff: he hasn't run for 193 days, more than six months, and we can't see how he has been working. The second is that seventh place last time out, a defeat that came straight after his four-race winning run and was followed by the long absence. The third is the weight: he carries 159lb. The fourth is the race type. A beginners' chase is generally for horses new to fences, and the card doesn't tell us whether his wins came over hurdles or fences. If this is his first run over fences, how he jumps is a significant unknown. In his favour, he has a proven winning habit, he has run over this trip and going, and the yard and jockey are both in good form.
The Bottom Line. This is a respectable case with real questions attached: four straight wins on one side, and a defeat, a six-month break, 159lb and possibly his first start over fences on the other. Unlike most of our recent selections, 15/8 isn't a short price, so there's some each-way value to consider. Each-way terms depend on the number of runners and the bookmaker, so check them before you bet, but if the place terms are reasonable, each-way at a reduced stake is the approach we'd suggest, given how much depends on him returning in good form after a long break.
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