Wednesday's NAP, Twelve Bars, is confirmed a winner at Kempton, and it makes three NAP winners in a row. We independently checked the result against outside sources before writing this up: he won the Unibet Supports Safer Gambling EBF Novice Stakes by half a length from Lancaster Tower, with Fenaroli third, under Oisin Murphy for trainer Hugo Palmer. The race commentary says he made all the running and "ran on, always doing enough."
On the price: we published 5/6, and he went off at 4/5, which is a slightly bigger price. We don't have a settled stake and return for this one yet, so we're not publishing a figure here.
We were upfront about how thin this case was. We called it one of the thinner selections we'd put forward, citing Hugo Palmer's yard running at just 6% over the previous fortnight, a single career run, no published rating and a generic Expert View, and we said that if you only back selections with a stronger paper case, passing was a sensible choice. The recommendation was win-only at a reduced stake. He won, but it was a narrow half-length, and that's the margin worth remembering. It's the result we'd read least into of the three.
The run so far. Narrjoo won at Pontefract on Monday by four and a quarter lengths at 1/4. Broadway Honey won at Huntingdon on Tuesday by seven and a half lengths at 4/5, though she made two jumping mistakes. Twelve Bars won at Kempton on Wednesday by half a length at 4/5. Each came with concerns we named before the race: a long layoff and a cold yard for Narrjoo, a three-day turnaround and 159lb for Broadway Honey, and a cold yard and thin data for Twelve Bars.
The run began right after Loughrea finished third at the Curragh on Sunday, and the week before that Duchess Of Immatin was beaten as favourite. We mention both because a streak is just a run of results, not a promise about the next selection, and we'll write up the next loser as plainly as we've written up these winners.
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