Paul Townend stayed loyal. He had options. He chose I Am Maximus for the third consecutive year. Won on him in 2024. Beaten by two and a half lengths in 2025 under top weight. Coming back in 2026 as the 7/1 favourite, top weight again, with the same jockey, the same trainer and the same ambition to complete a three-peat that no horse has achieved in the modern era.
Here is the honest case on both sides.
The Case For
The form is undeniable. I Am Maximus is the highest-rated horse in the Grand National field. His 2024 win was authoritative — he travelled with menace, jumped fluently and asserted his superiority in the closing stages in a way that confirmed class rather than luck. His 2025 second, under the maximum top weight of 11st 12lb, showed he retains his ability even when carrying a burden that history says should prevent winners. His Savills Chase second in December confirmed he is still at the top of his game heading into the spring.
Paul Townend is the best jumps jockey in the world right now. He won a Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Gaelic Warrior three weeks ago. He knows I Am Maximus better than any other rider. The combination of a proven Grand National winner and the sport's leading jockey is not a combination to dismiss.
Willie Mullins has nine runners in this race. He has won it in 2024 and 2025. His operation is more sophisticated in its targeting of the Grand National than any other stable in training. When Townend stays on I Am Maximus rather than switching to fresher options, it reflects an internal assessment that the horse is at his best.
The Case Against
Top weight has not won the Grand National in recent memory. The history is clear and the mechanism is simple: four miles two and a half furlongs over 30 fences in a field of 34 horses is a race where weight compounds across every furlong. A horse carrying 11st 12lb is running a different race from a horse carrying 10st 8lb. The difference is not abstract. It is measurable in the closing stages when reserves are exhausted.
I Am Maximus is ten years old. 2014 was the last time a horse older than ten won the Grand National. Age is a structural disadvantage in a race that demands physical resilience across the full four miles. He is not so old that he cannot win — but he is older than the historical profile of Grand National winners.
He is the favourite because he is the best horse. The Grand National is not always won by the best horse. It is won by the horse best suited to the specific demands of the race on the day.
The Honest Conclusion
I Am Maximus is the most talented horse in the field. Whether that talent can overcome the weight and age profile is the question Saturday will answer. At 7/1, the market has priced in his credentials without offering exceptional value. He is a worthy favourite. He is not a certainty.
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