One statistic defines how experienced Grand National punters bet differently from casual punters every single year. Only six favourites have won the Grand National since 1999. Over that same period, more than twenty renewals have been won by horses that were not the market leader. The favourite wins roughly once every four or five years. The other three or four years, the winner comes from somewhere else in the field.
That is the most important piece of information you can carry into Saturday's betting.
What the Stat Means
It does not mean the favourite is a bad bet. I Am Maximus is the 2026 favourite and he won the race in 2024. He is a credible, talented horse with a genuine chance. The statistic means that backing the favourite at a short price produces a negative expected return over time because the favourite loses more often than the odds reflect. If the favourite wins one race in five and pays 7/1, you need it to win one race in eight to break even. The maths of Grand National favourites does not work in favour of the punter who blindly backs the market leader every year.
What the Stat Does Not Mean
It does not mean you should automatically oppose the favourite. The six favourites that have won since 1999 include I Am Maximus in 2024, Corach Rambler in 2023 and Tiger Roll in 2019. Blindly opposing the favourite every year also produces losses. The stat is not a rule — it is a probability reminder.
How to Use It
The practical application is straightforward. Take your Grand National budget and split it. A portion goes on a shorter-priced, higher-confidence selection where the form case is strong. A portion goes on a bigger-priced each-way selection at 16/1 or above where the profile matches the trends — right age, manageable weight, course form or strong prep race, fresh preparation. That structure means you participate in the frequent Grand National scenarios where the favourite loses and a bigger-priced horse wins, while still having a stake on the most credible short-priced runner.
In 2026, that structure might look like a win bet or small each-way bet on Grangeclare West at 9/1 combined with an each-way bet on Captain Cody or a similarly profiled each-way play at 20/1 or bigger. Both legs of that bet are grounded in form. Neither bet relies on the favourite winning.
The Average Winning Price
The average odds of a Grand National winner over the past twenty years is approximately 20/1. That average is skewed by a handful of very short-priced winners. The median — the price that falls in the middle of all winning prices — is closer to 16/1. Both figures tell you the same thing: the Grand National field is not worth treating as a race with one obvious winner. It is worth treating as a race where the value consistently sits away from the top of the market.
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