For years the Grand National top weight has been treated as an unbettable proposition. The historical evidence was clear: carrying the maximum weight over four miles two and a half furlongs against 33 opponents is a structural disadvantage that even the best horses cannot overcome. The last horse to win from top weight was Red Rum in 1974. No horse had done it in over fifty years. I Am Maximus has done it twice.
He won from top weight in 2024 — though the historical precedent was noted, it was put down as an exceptional performance by an exceptional horse under specific conditions. He came back in 2026 carrying 11st 12lb again and won by two and a half lengths. That is not a coincidence. It is a data point that demands a reassessment of how top weight form in the Grand National should be interpreted.
What the Data Now Shows
We now have three consecutive Grand National winners carrying 11st 6lb or more. The last time that happened was 1936 to 1938. The modern Grand National — with its 34-runner limit, safety modifications and the concentration of the most talented staying chasers in training — may genuinely be becoming a race where class and ability can overcome weight more reliably than in the era of 40-plus runners over a more brutally demanding course.
Willie Mullins himself acknowledged this shift, saying "maybe the modern-day National is changing and we're looking at it a bit differently." That is not a casual observation from a trainer who has now won four Grand Nationals. It is a considered assessment from the most successful National trainer alive.
What It Means for 2027
I Am Maximus will be eleven years old for the 2027 Grand National. No horse older than ten has won the race in the modern era — a trend that even Saturday's result does not overturn. Whether connections attempt a third win with an eleven-year-old is a question for the autumn entries. The 2027 market already has him at 12/1. The question for punters next year will be whether his extraordinary ability and preparation can override the age trend the same way his class overrode the weight trend on Saturday.
For now, the lesson is this: when assessing future Grand Nationals, top weight should be treated as a disadvantage — but no longer an insurmountable one for a horse of genuine championship quality.
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