Christmas Day won the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown last month. He defeated Pierre Bonnard — a Group 1 winner — in the process. He is now confirmed for the Dante Stakes on Thursday at 3/1, and Aidan O'Brien is looking to end a sixteen-year wait for his fifth Dante win. Here is the full form case.
The Ballysax Win — Beating a Group 1 Winner
The Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown is a Group 3 over ten furlongs — the standard Irish Classic prep race in late April. Christmas Day won it, defeating Pierre Bonnard. The Racing Post confirmed: "Christmas Day picks up where he left off last term by winning the Ballysax Stakes but current Derby favourite Pierre Bonnard couldn't justify his short odds." Beating a horse with Group 1 form in a Classic trial is the clearest possible statement of Derby credentials available before Epsom.
O'Brien could also run three stablemates — Action (fourth in the Classic Trial at Sandown), Italy (fourth in the Ballysax) and Amadeus Mozart (maiden winner who was second to Godolphin's Maho Bay last time). His decision to confirm Christmas Day as his primary runner, over three alternatives, is the stable confidence signal that validates the form evidence.
O'Brien's Sixteen-Year Dante Drought
Aidan O'Brien last won the Dante Stakes in 2010 with Cape Blanco. In the sixteen years since, he has held multiple entries in almost every running and has not won the race. The statistical anomaly is striking for a trainer who dominates most other Classic prep races. O'Brien has won the Epsom Derby twelve times — yet has converted his Dante entries into wins just four times, with his most recent success sixteen years ago.
The drought adds specific interest to Thursday's race. If Christmas Day wins the Dante, O'Brien breaks a sixteen-year sequence. If he does not, the question of why O'Brien's horses consistently underperform at York in May despite their quality elsewhere remains open.
The Derby Market
Christmas Day is at 3/1 for the Dante. Benvenuto Cellini leads the Derby market also at 3/1 having not run in the Dante. If Christmas Day wins the Dante convincingly on Thursday, the Derby market will move — Benvenuto Cellini may lengthen slightly, Christmas Day will shorten. If Raaheeb or one of the Godolphin pair wins instead, the market restructures differently.
Raaheeb — The Market Challenger
Raaheeb (Owen Burrows, Rossa Ryan) won the Sandown bet365 Classic Trial on April 24. He was the ante-post market leader before Christmas Day's confirmation narrowed the market. Burrows has a strong record with Derby types — his horses typically travel powerfully and stay well. Raaheeb at Sandown produced the most recent British Classic trial form available.
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Facts verified via web search May 12 2026. Sources: Racing Post Dante confirmations, Read Horse Racing Dante preview.