The favourite lost. Again. The Scottish Grand National favourite has now won just three times in 23 renewals. Kap Vert, starting at 20/1, won the 2026 renewal. Before Saturday's race, the historical trends pointed clearly away from the market and toward exactly the type of horse Kap Vert represented. Here is the analysis.
The Trends That Applied to Kap Vert
French breeding — 17 of the last 22 Scottish Grand National winners were French or Irish bred. Kap Vert is French bred. This is not coincidence — the French AQPS staying bloodlines that dominate marathon National Hunt racing produce horses with the specific combination of stamina and jumping technique the Ayr test rewards.
Weight — 14 of the last 22 winners carried 10st 13lb or less. Kap Vert carried 10st 12lb. He was precisely within the historical optimal weight range. Carrying less weight over four miles on heavy ground compounds into a significant advantage across 27 fences — Kap Vert's light weight relative to the field's market leaders was built-in structural advantage.
Lightly raced profile — Kap Vert had made only five starts over fences. The Scottish National has consistently rewarded horses whose ability has not yet been fully exposed by the handicapper. A horse with five chase runs has a mark set by limited evidence — there is room for the horse to outperform what its rating suggests.
What the Favourite Did
Kim Roque started at 4/1 — the market leader — and finished third, beaten less than two lengths by the winner. His each-way backers were paid. But the historical trend that said the favourite wins just 13% of the time in this race held again. The market correctly identified Kim Roque as a competitive horse — but not the winner. The value was at 20/1 with Kap Vert, whose profile aligned with the historical pattern more precisely than any of the short-priced market leaders.
The AI Angle
Freetips.com identified Kap Vert as a 25/1 selection in their preview — one of two selections against the field. The case was his weight, his breeding and his jumping profile. Three variables, all in the public domain, all pointing to a horse whose price was significantly above what the data suggested was appropriate.
This is the systematic advantage that data-based selection provides — not a guaranteed winner, but a consistent ability to identify horses where the market price is higher than the probability warrants. At 20/1, Kap Vert's probability was undervalued. The result confirmed it.
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