On March 14, Isaac Des Obeaux went to post at Uttoxeter as a 28-1 outsider in the Midlands Grand National. He won by eight lengths. Paul Nicholls, who trained him, described the plan as "a long-held plan for his connections." The victory was deliberate rather than surprising in the Nicholls camp — the price was the market's surprise, not the trainer's.
That win identified Isaac Des Obeaux as one of the most interesting horses in Saturday's Scottish Grand National at Ayr. His form profile — a marathon winner at 28-1, eight lengths clear, carrying a 7lb rise for the victory — is the profile of a horse whose ability has not yet been fully priced in.
The Midlands National Win
Four miles two furlongs at Uttoxeter. Eight lengths. First attempt at a marathon trip. Trained by Paul Nicholls with Sam Twiston-Davies riding. The owners include Ged Mason, Sir Alex Ferguson and the Barber family. Nicholls confirmed the plan had been building across the season — "it has been a year in the making" was how one of the connections described the targeting of this race.
A horse winning a marathon national-type race by eight lengths at 28-1 on its first attempt at the trip is telling you something specific. It is staying effortlessly. It has more in reserve. The eight-length margin on debut at the trip is not a coincidence — it is a horse finding its ideal conditions for the first time.
The Scottish National Logic
The Midlands National is four miles two furlongs. The Scottish National is four miles. Same profile. Same demands. Same type of test. Horses that win one marathon national-type chase at the end of the season carrying manageable weights and showing improvement on their handicap mark have a consistent record of running well in the next marathon national they attempt.
Isaac Des Obeaux carries 11st 8lb at Ayr — a 7lb rise for the Midlands win, as confirmed in the weights. That rise places him fourth in the Scottish National weights, comfortably within the historical winning range where 18 of the last 22 winners carried 11st 1lb or less. He is close to that boundary but the combination of a horse that won by eight lengths carrying this weight gives him structural merit.
Paul Nicholls' Record
Nicholls has won the Scottish Grand National twice — Vicente in 2016 and 2017 back-to-back. He knows how to target this race. Having identified Isaac Des Obeaux as a marathon horse in March and now sending him to Ayr, the preparation pattern mirrors the deliberate targeting that produced Vicente's back-to-back wins a decade ago.
The Sir Alex Ferguson Connection
Sir Alex Ferguson is a part-owner of Isaac Des Obeaux. His involvement in racing since his Manchester United management career has produced several notable winners. Whether the former football manager will be present at Ayr on Saturday is not confirmed, but his horses are always among the most watched in a field.
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