The Scottish Grand National has been run at Ayr since 1966. Sixty years of data produces patterns that are not coincidences — they are the race telling you what it demands. Here are the six trend filters that consistently separate the contenders from the also-rans, applied to Saturday's confirmed field of 25.
Filter 1 — Weight
Eighteen of the last 22 Scottish National winners carried 11st 1lb or less. This is the single strongest trend in the race. The four miles at Ayr on potentially testing ground demands stamina, and weight compounds across every furlong. Top-weight winners are rare — only two of the last 22 winners carried 11st 7lb or more. The productive range is 10st 9lb to 11st 1lb.
Applied to 2026: Kim Roque (10st 13lb), Montregard (11st 1lb), Val Dancer (10st 10lb), Chasingouttheblues (10st 9lb), J'Arrive De L'Est (10st 9lb) and Magna Sam (10st 1lb) all fall within or near the optimal weight range.
Filter 2 — Age
Eighteen of the last 22 winners were aged 8 or older. The optimal bracket is 8-10 years old — 14 of the last 22 winners were in this range. Young horses lack the experience and physical maturity that four miles demands. Very old horses lack the physical condition.
Applied to 2026: King Of Answers (7) is on the young side of the ideal. Blaze The Way (8), Isaac Des Obeaux (8), Ask Brewster, Montregard and several others fall within the optimal age range.
Filter 3 — Recent Form
22 of the last 22 winners had raced within the previous 57 days. Not one winner arrived at Ayr off a lengthy absence. Fitness and race sharpness are non-negotiable over four miles. Horses returning from long breaks rarely win this race.
Filter 4 — Course Freshness
Only 7 of the last 22 winners had previously won at Ayr. The race does not specifically require course experience — it rewards profile over familiarity. Horses who have never run at Ayr are not disadvantaged by that absence in the way that Aintree experience matters for the Grand National.
Filter 5 — Finishing Position Last Time
Fifteen of the last 22 winners finished in the first three last time out. Horses coming into the Scottish National off a placed run are significantly more likely to win than those arriving off a mid-field or poor result. Form consistency leading into the race matters.
Filter 6 — The Favourite Warning
Only 3 of the last 22 Scottish National winners were favourites. The race has produced winners at 25/1, 33/1 and 40/1 in recent renewals. The favourite loses more than 85% of the time. If the trends point you toward a horse available at 12/1 or bigger, that is where the value sits — not at the head of the market.
Horse Racing Oracle AI's Scottish Grand National tip goes live Thursday, applying all six of these filters simultaneously. Sign up free at horseracingoracleai.com
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