The Epsom Derby runs on Saturday June 6. Six weeks away. Benvenuto Cellini leads the market at 3/1 after his Chester Vase win yesterday. Aidan O'Brien bids for his fourth consecutive Derby victory — an achievement without modern precedent. Here is the complete picture of the Derby market with six weeks to go.
The Market Leader
Benvenuto Cellini at 3/1 is the clearest Derby market leader at this stage of the preparation season in recent years. The Chester Vase winner in consecutive years has gone on to win the Derby — Lambourn in 2025. The same trainer, the same jockey, the same preparation route. Coolmore's confirmation that Moore was "very happy" with the horse at Chester adds direct stable confidence behind the market position.
O'Brien has won the Derby in each of the last three years. He chases four consecutive wins on June 6. He bids for a fourth consecutive win in the world's most famous flat race. No trainer has won the Derby four consecutive times in the modern era.
The Dante Route — A Challenger Will Emerge
The York Dante Festival runs May 15-17. The Dante Stakes on the Saturday is the second major Derby trial. In recent history, Dante winners have provided the strongest challenges to Chester Vase winners at Epsom. A horse that beats Benvenuto Cellini's time at Chester and travels powerfully on York's galloping Knavesmire becomes the Derby's second narrative — the Dante challenger versus the Vase winner.
The Dante has only been won by one favourite in the past ten years. The Derby market will shift significantly after the Dante result on May 16. If a horse wins the Dante convincingly and O'Brien is not involved, the 3/1 for Benvenuto Cellini may prove generous in hindsight.
The Each-Way Market
With Benvenuto Cellini at 3/1 and the field not yet fully declared, the each-way market for the Derby is where the most interesting value will emerge over the next six weeks. The Derby pays five places in most bookmakers. A horse at 20/1 or bigger that has compelling Derby credentials — a strong Dante performance, a well-regarded pedigree, an O'Brien or top-stable booking — represents the same type of value that I Am Maximus represented in the Grand National market before the race.
Trotbot will publish its Derby ante-post analysis in the fortnight before the race. Sign up free at horseracingoracleai.com
Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware.org.
Facts verified via web search May 7 2026.