Today's NAP goes live at 11am, and whatever it is, we'll be applying the same checks we've applied all week. A run of winners is nice, but the process behind a selection is the part worth understanding, so here is what we look at, with examples from our last three picks.
1. Is the yard in form? We look at the trainer's strike rate over the last 14 days. It's a small sample and we never treat it as a verdict, but it's worth stating. Hugo Palmer's 6% figure on Twelve Bars was the coldest we've written up in a while, and we said so before the race. Broadway Honey's yard, by contrast, was at 58%, though on only 12 runners, and we flagged that too.
2. How much data is there? A horse with one or two runs, no published rating or a generic Expert View gives us little to work with. Twelve Bars had one run and no rating, which is why we called it one of the thinner cases we've put forward. When the data is thin, we say so rather than dressing it up.
3. What's the gap since the last run? Both ends of the scale matter. Narrjoo returned after 54 days, and Broadway Honey after just three. A long layoff raises questions about fitness, and a very quick turnaround raises questions about recovery. Neither is a reason to avoid a horse, but each is a reason to think about the size of the bet.
4. What's the weight? This matters most in handicaps and over jumps. Broadway Honey carried 159lb in a novice handicap chase, which we named as a real concern, and she won by seven and a half lengths regardless.
5. What's the price saying? Short prices leave very little margin. At 4/6 or 5/6 there's no each-way value to speak of, so we say win-only, and we scale the stake to the number and severity of the concerns we've named.
None of this guarantees a winner, and the checks are just as likely to produce a "pass" as a "back it." What they do give you is an honest picture before the race, not an explanation afterwards. Look out for today's selection from 11am, and we'll write up the result either way.
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