Monday's NAP, Narrjoo, is confirmed a winner at Pontefract in the British EBF Novice Stakes, and the settled figures show a £10 stake returning £14.00. We independently checked the result against outside sources before writing this up, and it holds: he won by four and a quarter lengths under Daniel Tudhope for trainers Simon & Ed Crisford, making all the running.
One thing worth being precise about: the £14.00 return reflects the 2/5 we published. He went off at 1/4 on the day, so anyone who took the starting price instead of the early price would have been paid slightly less. It's a small example of why the price you take matters.
This was a case we described as cautious despite the short price. He was a winner last time out with a top jockey booked, but we flagged a 54-day layoff, a Crisford yard running at just 10% over the previous fortnight, no published rating, and a generic Expert View that gave us little to work with. We recommended a reduced stake and win-only, because with a price that short, those concerns left very little room for error.
Neither the layoff nor the quiet yard form stopped him. That's now the second time in recent weeks that a short-priced Crisford runner has overcome a cold-looking yard figure, which fits a point we've made before: a 14-day trainer strike rate is a small, noisy sample and shouldn't be treated as a verdict on any individual horse. Racing Post reporting after the race also quoted the yard saying he's "definitely up for something bigger and better," with a trip to Dubai in the winter mentioned as a possible target.
As always, the concerns we named beforehand were real, and the result going the right way doesn't make them disappear. It just means this particular horse was good enough to get past them.
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