Three NAP winners in a row is satisfying, but it's also exactly the moment to be careful about what a streak does and doesn't tell you.
Streaks happen without anything changing. Every race is its own event, and a run of winners doesn't make the next selection more likely to win, or less. Over a long enough series of bets, runs of wins and runs of losses both appear naturally, and a streak on its own is weak evidence of anything.
Short prices make winning runs more likely. The three winners in our run went off at 1/4, 4/5 and 4/5. Those prices imply the market thought each had roughly an 80%, 56% and 56% chance. Multiply them together and you get roughly a one-in-four chance of all three winning, before allowing for the bookmaker's margin, which means the true figure is a little lower. That's an illustration of how the market priced them, not a forecast of anything, but it shows that three in a row at those prices isn't a rare event. It's also why short-priced winners pay modestly: a streak of favourites can look better than it pays.
What a streak can tell you. A run of results can be a reasonable prompt to check whether the process behind the selections is sound: whether the concerns named before each race were the right ones, and whether the horses won for the reasons expected. In our case, Narrjoo and Broadway Honey won comfortably, while Twelve Bars won by half a length, so those results don't all carry the same weight.
What it can't tell you. It can't tell you the next pick will win. Streaks end, often on an ordinary horse in an ordinary race. It also isn't a reason to raise your stakes after a good run, a very common habit that turns a good week into a bad one when the streak breaks.
How we treat it. We publish every result, wins and losses, and we state the concerns before the race rather than after. Two recent selections that didn't win were Duchess Of Immatin, beaten as favourite, and Loughrea, third. They're part of the record just as much as the winners.
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