Today is Thursday September 10, and yesterday's NAP came home. Al Jolson won at Redcar, a £10 stake returning £12.20, justifying the extremely short 1/5 price he went off at. It's worth being honest about how this one was framed beforehand: the yard's form was flagged directly as a genuine concern, with Simon and Ed Crisford's stable managing just 8% winners over the preceding fortnight, and it was said plainly that this counted against an otherwise straightforward-looking selection.
That concern didn't matter in the end, and it's worth being just as clear about that as about the concern itself. The case for backing Al Jolson rested on the strength of the market's confidence in the individual horse — a price that short, off a single placed run, said more about what connections and punters alike saw in him than the bare form line did. A yard can be out of form generally while still fielding a horse good enough to win comfortably regardless, and that's exactly what played out.
This is a similar pattern to Massimo Blue's win a couple of weeks back — a NAP made with a clearly stated yard or ratings concern, where the individual horse's merit carried the day anyway. Neither result means the concern raised at the time was wrong to flag. It simply means the case for the horse himself was strong enough to survive it, which is exactly the kind of nuance that gets lost if a concern is only mentioned after a loss and quietly dropped after a win.
Today's selection is built using the same process regardless of yesterday's result: trainer form over the last 14 days, the gap between Racing Post Rating and official rating where one exists, going suitability, and course and distance form specifically — stated honestly, whatever the case turns out to be. Today's NAP is published at 11am, before the market moves.
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