Today is Friday September 4, and it's worth an honest look back before moving forward. Empress Princess was backed at odds-on, 1/2, at Ripon earlier in the week, off the back of a promising runner-up finish on debut. She was sent off favourite and finished third, beaten by The Resdev Roman at 11/1 and American Psycho at 7/1. A short price like that reflects strong market confidence, and it wasn't repaid on the day — a result worth stating plainly rather than glossing over.
Short-priced favourites lose more often than the odds sometimes suggest, and it's exactly why staking discipline matters regardless of how strong a case looks on paper. Being sent off at odds-on means the market has already priced in a high chance of winning, which also means the downside — a below-par run, being outpaced, getting shut for room in a small field — carries more relative sting than it would at a bigger price. That's the trade-off of backing short-priced confidence plays, and it's one worth remembering every time a NAP comes in at a short price rather than only when it doesn't pay off.
None of this changes how today's selection gets made. The same process applies regardless of the last result: trainer form over the last 14 days, the gap between Racing Post Rating and official rating, going suitability, and course and distance form specifically — stated honestly, whether the case is straightforward or comes with genuine caveats attached. Today's NAP is published at 11am, before the market moves, with the full reasoning behind it visible alongside the pick.
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