Today's selection is Kabral Du Mathan, running in the 13:25 at Perth, the Download The Free Racing TV App Now Beginners' Steeple Chase, a Class 3 over 2 miles on soft ground worth £7,922 to the winner. He's a 6-year-old gelding trained by Dan Skelton, ridden by Harry Skelton, and goes off at a very short 1/5.
Worth flagging before anything else: there's a rating discrepancy on this card. The Expert View refers to "our rating of 152" making him the one to beat, while the Race & Form box lists his official rating as 156. This is now the eighth card we've seen with a mismatch between these two figures. It's a recurring issue rather than a one-off, and it's worth raising each time, though on either figure the card still has him as the one to beat.
Form and class. His form line reads 2-/1-1-4, oldest to most recent, with the slash marking a gap in his record. So he was second, then won twice, and was fourth last time out. The Expert View adds a further second four starts back and notes he has already run over today's trip and going. The fourth last time is the one blemish, and it's followed by a long absence. It's also worth saying that a beginners' chase is a race for horses new to fences, and the card doesn't tell us whether his earlier form came over hurdles or fences. If this is his first start over fences, that's a significant unknown on top of everything else.
Connections. Dan Skelton trains from Alcester in Warwickshire, and Harry Skelton rides. The yard's 14-day figure is 22%, with 16 winners from 73 runners. That's a strong return from a large sample, and the connections are about as solid as they come in jumps racing.
The Honest Assessment. Four things stand out. The first is the layoff: 217 days off is more than seven months, and the Expert View itself names it as a quibble. A long absence raises questions about fitness and sharpness, and we have no way of seeing how he has been working. The second is the fourth place last time out, which was a defeat. The third is the weight: he carries top weight of 159lb, which the Expert View acknowledges. The fourth is the price. At 1/5 you're risking £5 to win £1, which means the horse has to win nearly every time for the bet to pay. In a Class 3 race over fences, with a seven-month absence and a possible first run over fences, that leaves almost no room for a bad round of jumping or a fitness question. Against all that, the case for him is real: he tops the field on the card's own ratings, he has run over this trip and going, and the connections are first-class.
The Bottom Line. He's the one to beat on the card, but a 1/5 price demands near-perfection, and the card itself names the layoff and the weight as concerns. At 1/5 there's no each-way value to speak of, so this is win-only if you back it, and we'd suggest a reduced stake. If you only back selections where the risk and reward are better balanced, this is a race where passing is a sensible choice.
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