After a run of winners, it's tempting to line them up and add up the profit. This week we had three winning selections in a row and then a beaten Group 1 favourite, which makes it a good moment to explain why a list of winners on its own is never a record.
The problem with a wins-only list. If you list only the winners, the total always looks good, because the losing bets that cost money have been left out. A tipster who gets one pick in three right can still produce a long, impressive list of winners. A fair record has to include every selection, wins and losses, over a clear period.
What to look for. Every selection in the period, not just the successes. The same stake on each bet, so results can be compared fairly. The price the stake is measured at, whether that is the early price published with the tip or the starting price, since the two can differ and a result can look better or worse depending on which is used. And a clear way to check the results independently, because a record you can't verify is just a claim.
Why the price matters. This week alone, our selections went off at prices that differed from our published ones: Kabral Du Mathan at 2/9 against our 1/5, Arthurian at 2/7 against 1/3, and Magnetude at 2/5 against 4/7. Two of those starting prices were shorter than the ones we published, so a bet at the starting price would have paid less than one at ours, while Kabral Du Mathan's was slightly bigger and would have paid a little more. That's exactly why we say which price we're quoting, and why we won't publish a return until it's confirmed.
Short prices flatter streaks. Winning favourites at short prices pay modestly, and a run of them can feel more profitable than it is. One beaten favourite, as Kalpana was at Ascot, can undo several winners' worth of returns, because the stakes are so large relative to the profits.
How we try to do it. We write up losers as plainly as winners. This month that has included Loughrea, Motawaared, Buddy One and now Kalpana, each beaten after we'd named our concerns. We check results against outside sources, we say when a source disagrees with the figure we were given, and we leave out any stake and return we can't confirm.
The next time you see a tipster's winning list, the question to ask isn't how many winners there were. It's where the losers went.
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