Monday's NAP, Im The One, was beaten at Southwell, finishing second as the 1/2 favourite in the Novice Stakes. The winner was Amazonica at 5/1.
One caveat on the result: we found this in a single results source and haven't yet been able to confirm it against a second one, so we're giving you the finishing positions and prices but not the winning margin. If a second source disagrees, we'll correct this post.
We called this a cautious case, and we named the reasons. She had been off for 166 days, more than five months. She'd had only two runs, a win and a second, so there was very little to go on. The Expert View was generic, and the card gave no way to rank her rating against the field. We also couldn't tell whether she had raced on the all-weather before. Against that, she came from the Gosden yard, which was running at 21% from 34 runners. We recommended win-only at a reduced stake, because at 1/2 there was almost no room for error, and we said that if you only back selections with a stronger paper case, passing was a sensible choice.
She didn't win. She went off at the same 1/2 we published, so the market was as confident at the off as we were when we wrote the card, and she was still beaten. We can't say from the result alone which of the concerns we named mattered most, and we won't pretend to. What we can say is that a short-priced favourite returning from a long break with two runs behind her is exactly the kind of selection where one thing going wrong is enough, and a reduced stake was the right size for it.
It also fits a pattern worth being straight about. Our recent short-priced selections have been a mix: three winners in three days last week, then Kalpana beaten at Ascot, and now Im The One second at Southwell. We'll keep writing up every result the same way, with the concerns named before the race and the outcome afterwards.
We're not publishing a stake or return for this one, because we haven't had a confirmed figure from the app.
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