A horse on the upgrade is one of racing's most reliable betting vehicles. Add wind surgery between his last win and today, a jockey of Harry Cobden's calibre in the saddle, and a field that the form book's own analysts describe as his to lose, and you have the clearest NAP of the day we have seen in some time. Today's free racing tips focus on Wincanton's Racing TV Handicap Chase at 14:50, where The Long Point lines up as the standout selection in a five-runner Class 4 contest over three miles on soft ground.
The Selection
The Long Point is a seven-year-old gelding trained by Emma Lavelle and ridden by Harry Cobden. Priced at 2.10 at the time of writing in the 3m1f30y Racing TV Handicap Chase, this progressive chaser arrives here with the wind at his back in every sense. A Racing Post Rating of 118 and a Topspeed of 101 confirm he is operating well within his compass on an official mark of 107, and the expert view is unambiguous — a bumper winner in 2024, on the up in three starts over fences, he opened his chasing account at Doncaster last month in a four-runner handicap over three miles on soft ground, and the second from that race has since won, franking the form significantly. Wind surgery since that victory is a further positive, and a 3lb rise in the weights is described as "no bother" by the form book. The Racing Post's own tip column names him their nap — a rare level of consensus across multiple sources.
Form and Class
The form string of 2-5---4-5-1 tells the story of a horse finding his feet progressively over fences before landing a decisive blow at Doncaster last month. Those earlier figures include placed efforts on varying ground, and the three-chase sequence this season shows clear upward momentum — fifth, fourth, then a winning debut at the trip over three miles on soft. That Doncaster success was not a fluke. The four-runner field included horses who have since gone on to win, and The Long Point did it with something to spare on the soft ground he relishes. His bumper win in 2024 hinted at a horse with the requisite class, and the transition to fences has been smooth and controlled under Emma Lavelle's patient handling. At OR 107 and RPR 118, the handicapper has not yet caught up with his improvement curve.
The Connections
Emma Lavelle's Ogbourne Maizey yard in Wiltshire has produced consistent performers at this level throughout her career, and The Long Point fits the profile of a horse she has developed carefully from bumper origins into handicap chasing. The booking of Harry Cobden is the real signal here. The former champion jockey, who has ridden over 1,000 British winners and brings elite-level judgment to every ride, does not make the journey to Wincanton for a horse he does not fancy. When Cobden and a progressive young chaser combine in a five-runner handicap, the market pays attention — and here it has, with The Long Point attracting 10 tips on the Racing Post racecard and going off at Evens in the morning forecast.
Why Today
Soft ground at Wincanton over three miles and one furlong precisely mirrors the conditions in which The Long Point delivered at Doncaster. The wind surgery since that victory is a significant positive — it addresses whatever respiratory limitation may have existed and typically unlocks further improvement in horses already on an upward curve. The 3lb penalty leaves him at OR 107, still well treated relative to his RPR of 118, meaning an 11lb gap exists between where the handicapper has him and where the form book suggests he is operating. That kind of margin, in a five-runner field, is where confident betting selections are built.
The Opposition
Nambiti, trained by Venetia Williams and ridden by Charlie Deutsch, carries top weight of 12st off OR 110 and holds an RPR of 117 — marginally below The Long Point's 118. Williams's yard always commands respect, but Nambiti's form figures of /32/4P include a recent pulled-up effort and he faces an uphill task against a horse in better current form. West Orchard is the market's second choice at 7/2 in the morning and warrants each-way consideration, while Doctor Midas at 9/2 and Phantom Getaway at 8/1 complete a field where The Long Point's improving profile and elite jockeyship give him a decisive edge.
The Bottom Line
This is the type of horse racing bet today that experienced punters identify early and back with conviction. A progressive young chaser with wind surgery since his last win, returning to his winning trip and ground conditions, ridden by a former champion jockey in a five-runner field every analyst expects him to dominate. The Long Point at Wincanton at 2.10 is today's NAP of the day and our Wincanton tips banker — win only, with sensible stakes, and every angle pointing firmly in the same direction.
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