The six lengths Ibelieveicanfly was beaten by last time out tells you almost nothing about her ability. What it tells you is everything about Alpha — the filly who beat her. Alpha, a daughter of Alpha Centauri trained by Aidan O'Brien, produced what Timeform described as a scintillating display at the Curragh, is currently ranked behind only Libertango and Victorious among the top two-year-old fillies in training, and was described as something special by those who watched her win. Being six lengths behind a horse of that calibre is not a form failure. It is a form reference.
Ibelieveicanfly is a daughter of Frankel from the Niarchos family — the same dynasty that produced Miesque, Kingmambo, East Of The Moon and Alpha Centauri herself. Ryan Moore has picked her over two O'Brien stablemates in this race. Aidan O'Brien has won this specific fillies' maiden at the Curragh three times in five years, most notably with Snowfall, who went on to win the Oaks, Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks. At 1/2, she is today's NAP.
The Alpha Context — The Key to Reading This Form
Ibelieveicanfly finished second on both her starts — fourth on debut at Leopardstown, where she needed the run and faded close home, and second last time behind Alpha at the Curragh over seven furlongs on good to firm ground. The six-length margin behind Alpha looks stark until you understand what Alpha is.
Timeform ranks Alpha behind only two fillies among all two-year-olds currently in training. The TDN described her Curragh win as a performance that left everyone in no doubt they had seen something special. Alpha produced a penultimate-furlong effort which simply set her apart — Ibelieveicanfly, six lengths back, was second in a race won by one of the most impressive juvenile fillies seen at the Curragh in years.
As the expert analysis notes: the six-length defeat says more about the progress of the winner than it does about a knock on Ibelieveicanfly's own progress. She might not need to improve to go one better here.
Ryan Moore Picks Her
O'Brien has three runners in this race — Ibelieveicanfly, Beach, and Speckles. Ryan Moore has chosen Ibelieveicanfly. Moore does not make this selection casually. He rides every significant O'Brien juvenile of the season and knows the Ballydoyle string as well as anyone. When he picks one filly over two stablemates in a race the yard has specifically targeted, that is the yard's internal verdict on which filly is ready to win.
O'Brien's Record in This Race
Aidan O'Brien has won the Irish EBF Fillies Maiden at the Curragh three times in its five-year history. The most notable winner was Snowfall — who went on to win the Oaks, the Irish Oaks, and the Yorkshire Oaks in the same season. This race has become a Ballydoyle targeting exercise, and the trainer's record in it is exceptional.
The Pedigree — Frankel from the Niarchos Family
Ibelieveicanfly is by Frankel and comes from one of the most celebrated families in European racing — the Niarchos operation that produced Miesque (two Breeders' Cup Mile wins), Kingmambo, East Of The Moon, and most recently Alpha Centauri. The fourth dam is Miesque herself. Horses from this family tend to be precocious, high-class, and progressive through their two-year-old season. Being bred by Coolmore and owned by Flaxman Stables/Magnier/Tabor/Smith means the highest possible level of support and preparation.
O'Brien at 14% — Good to Firm Suits
O'Brien's yard is running at 14% over 14 days — a steady rate from an operation that has been managing a full summer programme. Good to firm at the Curragh over seven furlongs is the same conditions as her second-place finish behind Alpha — conditions confirmed as suitable by her own form.
The Bottom Line
Beaten six lengths last time by a filly Timeform ranks among the very best two-year-olds in training — a result that reflects the exceptional quality of the winner rather than any failure of this filly. Ryan Moore picks her over two stablemates. O'Brien has won this race three times in five years including with Snowfall. Daughter of Frankel from the Niarchos/Miesque family. Good to firm suits. At 1/2, Ibelieveicanfly is today's NAP — back to win.
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