Blakefell steps into the Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap Stakes at Kempton this evening on the back of two consecutive runner-up finishes — form that suggests he's close to breaking through. Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride for Ivan Furtado. At 15/8, he is today's NAP, though there's a significant concern attached that has to be stated upfront.
The Form
A recent line of --1-6-3-2-2 shows a horse who has been knocking on the door consistently. Two straight seconds is exactly the kind of form that often precedes a win, and further back there's a victory in there too, alongside a sixth that tempers the picture slightly but doesn't undermine the broader trend. He returns after just 9 days, a quick turnaround that points to a yard keen to capitalise while he's running well, and he's already proven he handles both today's trip and today's going.
Race and Conditions
Today's contest is a Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs on standard to slow ground at Kempton's all-weather, worth £6,281 to the winner. An official rating of 86 gives him what the analysis describes as a fighting chance from stall 2 carrying 128lb — competitive rather than dominant, but workable in this company.
The Honest Assessment
This has to be said directly rather than buried: Ivan Furtado's yard has had no winners from 14 runners over the last 14 days. A 0% strike rate is about as cold as a yard's form can read, and it's a genuine concern that sits alongside an otherwise reasonable case for the horse himself. A stable that isn't sending out winners right now can mean any number of things — horses not quite at their best, ground or conditions not suiting, or simply a rough patch that has nothing to do with any individual runner — but the uncertainty it creates is real and shouldn't be waved away just because Blakefell's own recent form reads well.
The Connections
Ivan Furtado trains from Easingwold in North Yorkshire, and while the immediate yard form is a clear concern, Silvestre De Sousa is an experienced, high-calibre jockey whose booking here carries some weight of its own, regardless of the stable's current run.
The Bottom Line
Two straight runner-up finishes, a quick and confident turnaround, and proven course and going form all build a reasonable case for Blakefell on his own merits. But a yard with zero winners from fourteen runners over the last fortnight is a serious concern that needs to be weighed heavily rather than glossed over, and it's the kind of red flag that can undo an otherwise sound-looking selection. At 15/8, Blakefell is today's NAP, but this is one to treat with real caution given the state of the yard, and a reduced stake looks the sensible approach.
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