Today's selection is Buddy One, running in the 14:45 at Punchestown, the William Hill Challenge Series Hurdle, over 2 miles 7 furlongs 95 yards on good ground. He's a 9-year-old gelding trained by Paul John Gilligan, ridden by Danny Gilligan, and goes off at 7/4.
Worth flagging before anything else: there's a rating discrepancy on this card. The Expert View refers to "our rating of 143," while the Race & Form box lists his official rating as 139. This is now the seventh card we've seen with a mismatch between these two figures. It's a recurring issue rather than a one-off, and here it's a four-pound gap, so it's worth keeping in mind whichever figure you use.
Form and class. His form line reads P-4-0---8-3, oldest to most recent: pulled up, fourth, unplaced, then a long gap, and most recently eighth and then third. The Expert View points to that third last time out and notes he has already run over today's trip and going. That is a modest recent run, and we'd rather be straight about the rest of the picture. The Expert View itself says he is yet to win in his last five starts, and that our own rating puts him only second of five in this field, so the card is telling us that at least one rival is rated higher. This is a case built on a horse coming into form, not one that tops the figures.
Connections. Paul John Gilligan trains from Athenry in Co Galway, and Danny Gilligan rides. The yard's 14-day figure is 0%, with no winners from 5 runners. That's the coldest figure it's possible to show, though five runners is a very small sample and a yard that size can easily go a fortnight without a winner. It's still worth stating plainly.
The Honest Assessment. Five things stand out. The first is the lack of wins: none in his last five starts. The second is the rating, with our own figure placing him second of five, not first. The third is the 36 days since his last run, a layoff that raises a question about fitness. The fourth is the weight: he carries 154lb, which the Expert View names as part of the risk, over nearly three miles. The fifth is the yard's 0% from five runners. On the plus side, he has finished third most recently, has run over this trip and going before, and a five-runner field gives him a clearer run than a big handicap would. At 7/4 the market clearly rates him, but it's a price that asks a lot of a horse with this record.
The Bottom Line. This is one of the weaker cases we've put forward. A third last time out and a short price are the main things in his favour, while a winless run, a second-of-five rating, a layoff, 154lb and a cold yard all count against him. With only five runners, each-way terms are limited, and we wouldn't recommend an each-way bet here, so this is win-only if you back it, with a reduced stake. If you only back selections with a stronger paper case, this is a race where passing is a sensible choice.
✅ Try 7 days for only £1.99 — click here
Want free AI-powered tips every morning? Sign up free at horseracingoracleai.com →
Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware.org.