When the Racing Post's own racecard analysis says it will be "difficult for these geldings to give Karoline Banbou 7lb," the case for today's NAP of the day at Leopardstown is made before a word of the form book is read. Add a trainer operating at a 43% strike rate, a jockey in Mark Walsh who is the current Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning rider at the peak of his powers, the JP McManus silks, and a mare with Grade 1 bumper form in France stepping into a beginners chase she is bred and rated to handle — and this is the clearest Leopardstown tips selection on the card.
The Selection
Karoline Banbou is a six-year-old No Risk At All mare trained by Willie Mullins at Muine Bheag in Co. Carlow and ridden by Mark Walsh. Available at 1.80 at the time of writing in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase over 2m1f on yielding to soft ground at Leopardstown, she carries an RPR of 139 — the highest in the race — and arrives with solid evidence on both chase starts that she has the ability and jumping technique to handle fences. The mares' allowance of 7lb is the structural advantage that converts her superior form into an even larger effective weight edge over her rivals.
Form and Class
The form figures of 4-6-7---2-2 require the full picture to appreciate. Her hurdling record was built on a foundation of Grade 1 bumper form in France before she transferred to the Mullins yard — the form book confirms she is rated 130 in the hurdles sphere on the strength of that background. Her two most recent starts have both been over fences, and the expert view is clear: solid efforts on both chase runs, though beaten last time by a longer-priced stablemate who produced a strong late challenge. That stablemate victory came in a race at Naas where Karoline Banbou was sent off 1-2 favourite under Mark Walsh in the JP McManus colours, looked set to win after seeing off a rival in a protracted battle, but was run down in the final strides by Baby Kate. The form book's verdict is candid — she ran her race, was beaten by a mare who produced an unexpected late flourish, and she "comes out a clear best at these weights" today.
The Connections
Willie Mullins' operation at Muine Bheag is the most successful jump racing training establishment in the world by any reasonable measure. His 14-day strike rate of 43% from 30 runners — 13 winners — is almost beyond comprehension as a sustained run of form. Mark Walsh, who steered Inothewayurthinkin to Cheltenham Gold Cup glory in 2025, is as accomplished and experienced as any jump jockey operating today. When Mullins and Walsh combine on a JP McManus horse in a beginners chase at Leopardstown, the entire racing ecosystem takes notice — the morning forecast 4/6 odds before adjustments reflect this clearly. This is not a horse being thrown in at the deep end; it is a carefully managed progression by a trainer who has mapped out more chasing careers than any in the business.
Why Today
Yielding to soft ground at Leopardstown suits a mare with heavy-ground wins in her history and a frame that flourishes in testing conditions. The 2m1f trip is appropriate for a horse whose form has been competitive at similar distances. The structural advantage of the 7lb mares' allowance against geldings in a beginners chase is significant at this class level — the Racing Post racecard makes the point directly. A beginners chase at Leopardstown on a spring card is precisely the type of race Mullins uses to introduce or advance mares with graded potential, and the placement here is deliberate. She comes out a clear best at the weights, she has the chasing form to support the selection, and the opposition — including Come Walk With Me at 5/1, Kamikaz Du Plessis and Net Boy at 8/1, and Stuntman Steve at 14/1 — represents rivals who have not demonstrated the level of hurdles form that underpins Karoline Banbou's rating.
The Opposition
Come Walk With Me at 5/1 is the most notable challenger at a price that suggests some market respect, but the 7lb concession it and the other geldings must absorb against a mare of Karoline Banbou's RPR makes for a very steep task. The remainder of the field at 8/1 and beyond are either unexposed in chase company or lack the hurdles form ratings to bridge the gap at the weights. This is Karoline Banbou's race to lose.
The Bottom Line
Grade 1 bumper form in France. Rated 130 over hurdles. Solid chasing form on both starts. A 7lb mares' allowance that the Racing Post says will be "difficult" for the geldings to overcome. Willie Mullins firing at 43%. Mark Walsh in the saddle. JP McManus colours. This is the Leopardstown tips banker today — win only, at sensible stakes, on a mare whose form figures understate her ability and whose connections have placed her perfectly for a beginners chase success.
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