Today's selection is La Note Verte, running in the 16:47 at Listowel — the Ballygarry Estate Hotel & Spa Mares Novice Steeplechase over 2 miles 3 furlongs 100 yards on good ground. She's a 6-year-old mare for W. P. Mullins, ridden by Paul Townend, and goes off at 5/6.
Worth flagging before anything else: the Expert View on this card is generic once again — "selected as today's top pick based on form analysis and expert ratings," with nothing specific behind it. As with recent cards carrying this same boilerplate line, we've built the case from the raw form and connections data instead.
Form and class. Her form line reads 6-4---3-3-1, and reading through it, this is a mare on an improving trajectory — a 6th and a 4th earlier on, then a run of 3rd, 3rd, and a win last time out. That's a genuinely encouraging shape: not a horse that peaked and faded, but one whose placings have been getting stronger, capped off by an actual victory in her most recent start. Her official rating of 128 is a strong figure for this level, and she returns on a 38-day gap — a sensible, unremarkable break between runs.
Connections. Paul Townend is stable jockey to W. P. Mullins and among the best riders in Ireland, and Mullins remains one of the most powerful trainers in National Hunt racing full stop. The 14-day yard figure on this card shows 17% (4 winners from 24 runners) — solid, healthy form, if a little below the very top-end purple patches this yard can produce. It's not a concern so much as a note that this isn't the yard at its most red-hot.
The Honest Assessment. This is one of the cleaner cases we've put together recently. The clearest thing working against her is the price — at 5/6, the market has already priced in a lot of the confidence the form and connections suggest, which limits the value on offer even if the case itself holds up well. Beyond that, there's no red flag: no troubling absence, no awkward weight, no cold yard, and a form line that's trending the right way rather than the wrong one.
The Bottom Line. Between the win last time out, the strong rating, and a top-level jockey and trainer combination, this is a straightforward, confidence-based pick rather than one built around overriding a stated concern. At 5/6 there's little each-way value worth chasing, so this is win-only, and a standard stake is justified given how clean the case is compared with some of our recent, more heavily-caveated selections.
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