Venetian Lion ran second last time out and returns just seven days later in fine shape. Experience of today's trip and going works in his favour from stall one. William Haggas trains from Newmarket at 19% over 14 days. Tom Marquand rides at Nottingham at 17:10. The concern is acknowledged directly: winless in his last four starts, with a ninth and seventh in between his two placed efforts. At 5/6, he is today's NAP.
Second Last Time — In Fine Shape
His form reads 7-9-6-2 and the expert view's framing of the most recent run is important: he ran second last time out and returns in fine shape. A horse described as returning in fine shape seven days after a placed effort is a horse whose trainer has assessed as fully recovered and ready to go again immediately. William Haggas does not make quick returns with horses who need more time.
The second last time confirms the ability is live at this level. Or 65 in a Class 5 handicap at Nottingham — a horse who ran second off that mark has demonstrated he can be competitive. He comes back within a week, on the same trip and going that worked last time, from stall one which gives him the rail position to control his own race.
Experience of Today's Trip and Going — Stall One
The expert view confirms both positives directly: experience of today's trip and going, and stall one. One mile and 75 yards at Nottingham on good to firm ground — confirmed as familiar conditions rather than an unknown. Stall one on the inside rail at Nottingham over a mile gives Venetian Lion the most direct route to the first bend and the ability to slot into a position without using energy to find one.
Nottingham is a flat, left-handed, galloping track — fair and conventional. Form from similar tracks translates well and a horse proven at this trip and going on this type of track carries no course uncertainty.
William Haggas at 19% — Tom Marquand
William Haggas's Somerville Lodge yard is running at 19% over the last 14 days — 9 winners from 48 runners. A solid, sustained rate from one of the most respected operations in British Flat racing. Haggas does not run horses speculatively — a quick seven-day return from a yard at 19% signals deliberate, confident targeting.
Tom Marquand riding is a strong booking signal. Marquand is one of the best jockeys in Britain, regularly riding the better horses in competitive races. His presence on a Class 5 Nottingham handicap on a Monday evening carries weight — he does not take those bookings without belief in the horse's chance.
The Honest Concern — Winless in Four
The expert view names it directly: winless in his last four starts, with a ninth and seventh in between the two placed efforts making the inconsistency hard to ignore. A horse who has finished ninth and seventh between two placed efforts is a horse whose form is erratic rather than consistently competitive.
This is the primary risk in today's selection. The ninth and seventh are poor results that sit alongside the second and the sixth. The pattern is not of a horse building steadily — it is a horse who shows up on some days and not others. Today may be a show-up day or it may not. The fine shape description from the expert view and the Haggas yard confidence are the reasons to believe it is, but the inconsistency record is real.
The Bottom Line
Second last time in fine shape. Seven-day return signals trainer confidence. Trip and going proven. Stall one gives the rail position. Haggas at 19%, Marquand riding. Winless in four starts with a ninth and seventh sandwiched in — the acknowledged concern. At 5/6, Venetian Lion is today's NAP — back to win, with eyes open about the inconsistency in the form record.
✅ Try 7 days for only £1.99 — click here
Want free AI-powered tips every morning? Sign up free at horseracingoracleai.com →
Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. Visit BeGambleAware.org.