Thunder Call opens the card at Ascot in the Schweppes Handicap Stakes off a second last time out and two wins from his last five starts. Cieren Fallon takes the ride for William Haggas. At 6/5, he is today's NAP, though this one comes with a significant caveat that needs stating upfront rather than after the fact.
The Form
A recent line of 2---1-1-3-2 shows a genuinely competitive horse — two wins and three placed efforts across his last five starts, with nothing worse than a third in that run. He's already proven he handles both today's trip and today's going, removing two variables that can catch out a horse facing the unknown, and he returns after a sensible 28-day break.
Race and Conditions
Today's contest is a Class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs on good ground at Ascot, worth a substantial £41,232 to the winner — a valuable, competitive prize that reflects the calibre of a strong eight-runner field. An official rating of 93 is a solid mark in isolation, but it needs to be read in the context of who else is lining up today.
The Honest Assessment
This has to lead the analysis rather than sit at the bottom of it: on our figures, Thunder Call ranks seventh of eight in this field. That is a real and significant concern, not a minor footnote, and it stands in direct tension with how good his recent form otherwise reads. A horse can be in good form and still be facing a field that's simply stronger than what he's been beating — and that appears to be exactly the situation here. This is a NAP made in spite of the ratings picture, built on the strength of recent form and proven conditions rather than because the figures support him.
The Connections
William Haggas trains from Newmarket in Suffolk, and the yard's form is solid — 19% winners from 48 runners over the last fortnight, a healthy return that suggests the stable is sending out horses in good order. Cieren Fallon takes the ride, and the strength of the yard and rider combination is one of the more persuasive parts of this case, separate from the ratings concern.
The Bottom Line
Two wins and three places across his last five starts, proven course, distance and going form, and a yard in good touch all support Thunder Call on current form. But ranking seventh of eight on the underlying figures is a genuine and significant concern that shouldn't be downplayed just because the recent results look strong — this is one of the more stiffly-tested selections on paper this week. At 6/5, the price doesn't leave much room for that gap in the figures, so this is one to treat with real caution and a reduced stake given how clearly the ratings argue against him.
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