The 250th St Leger Festival closes out with Sunday Funday, and Forty Years On returns to the track she won at last time, stepping up into Group 3 company in the Japan Racing Association Sceptre Fillies' Stakes. Hector Crouch takes the ride for George Scott. At 13/8, she is today's NAP.
The Form
A recent line of 1-1-2---1-1 shows back-to-back wins right now, following an earlier sequence that included another couple of victories either side of a second. This is a filly in genuinely strong current form, and she's already proven she handles today's course, distance and going, which removes several variables from the equation heading into a step up in grade.
Race and Conditions
Today's contest is a Class 1 Group 3 event over 7 furlongs on good ground at Doncaster, worth £53,874 to the winner — a significant step up from the level she's been winning at, and a genuinely competitive field befitting the finale of a 250th anniversary festival.
The Honest Assessment
This has to be stated plainly: on our figures, a rating of 102 leaves Forty Years On a little below the top of this field. That's a real concern in a Group 3 field rather than a minor technicality, and it needs weighing seriously against the strength of her recent form. She also carries a stiff 130lb from stall 4, a demanding weight that adds to the test she's facing today. Two wins on the bounce is genuinely strong form, but this is a clear step up in company, and the rating gap suggests there are horses in this field with more solid claims on pure figures alone.
The Connections
George Scott trains from Newmarket in Suffolk, and the yard's form is modest — 13% winners from 15 runners over the last fortnight, a return that doesn't offer much extra reassurance heading into a tougher assignment. Hector Crouch takes the ride, and the case here leans heavily on the filly's own recent momentum rather than support from either the ratings or the yard's current touch.
The Bottom Line
Back-to-back wins, a sensible 15-day turnaround, and proven course, distance and going form all support Forty Years On on current form. But a rating that leaves her below the top of this field, a stiff weight from a testing draw, and a yard running at just 13% are three real concerns that shouldn't be downplayed just because she's won her last two. At 13/8, Forty Years On is today's NAP, but this is a step up worth treating with real caution, and a reduced stake looks the sensible approach given how clearly the figures argue against her at this level.
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