Dan Skelton has won five of the last nine runnings of the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase at Ayr. His record in the race excluding non-completions reads 1-1-2-1-3-1-1. He had two other entries — Riskintheground and Heltenham — and declared neither of them. He declared only Hoe Joly Smoke. On Scottish Grand National day at Ayr, the race before the big one, this is today's NAP at 15:30.
The Selection
Hoe Joly Smoke is an eight-year-old gelding trained by Dan Skelton at Alcester in Warwickshire, ridden by Harry Skelton in the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase over 2m4f110y on soft ground at Ayr. Form reads P---3-3-5-6. OR 130, RPR 153, TS 142. Last ran 55 days ago at Kempton. Wind surgery since that run. 9 runners.
The Skelton Record in This Race
Five wins from nine runnings. That number alone makes every Skelton runner in this race worth taking seriously. But the detail matters more than the headline. Sporting Life's preview published this morning goes further: "strip out Heltenham (fell) and Jet Place (pulled up) — both failed to complete two years ago — and you're left with eye-popping figures of 1-1-2-1-3-1-1." That record means every Skelton horse that completed in this race finished first, first, second, first, third, first or first. One third, one second, five wins from seven completions.
This is not a trainer who occasionally does well in a race. This is a trainer who specifically targets the Hillhouse Quarry, prepares his horse to peak for it, and produces results that no other yard comes close to matching at this meeting.
Skelton Declared Only This Horse
Dan Skelton had two other entries in this race — Riskintheground and Heltenham. Riskintheground won at Haydock on Wednesday. Heltenham has previous in this race. He declared neither. He declared only Hoe Joly Smoke.
The Sporting Life preview this morning confirms the significance: "the fact Skelton is happy to rely solely on Hoe Joly Smoke — having not declared his other entries Riskintheground (won at Haydock on Wednesday) or Heltenham — can also be deemed a positive for his chances." A trainer who could have run three horses and chose to run one is a trainer who has decided which horse is ready. That horse is Hoe Joly Smoke.
Wind Surgery — Timed for This Race
Hoe Joly Smoke had wind surgery since his last run at Kempton 55 days ago. The Sporting Life's analysis is specific: "that subsequent visit to the vets looks to have been timed specifically with a view to this race which we know his trainer targets." Wind surgery is performed when a horse has a breathing obstruction that limits performance. The surgery itself takes weeks of recovery before the horse can be tested properly. A trainer who performs wind surgery and then declares the horse for a specific target race 55 days later is a trainer who has planned the entire season around this moment.
The Kempton run — sixth of 13, seven and three quarter lengths behind Lookaway — produced the form figure of 6 that sits at the right end of his form string. That run was on good to soft, before the surgery. He arrives at Ayr on soft ground, post-surgery, fresh from a deliberate 55-day preparation. The form figure of 6 last time is not the form he will produce today.
The RPR to OR Gap — 23 Points
RPR 153. OR 130. A 23-point gap between independent performance assessment and official handicap rating. At Class 2 chase level, a 23-point RPR-to-OR advantage means the horse has run to a level that is dramatically above what his weight today reflects. His two third-place finishes at Cheltenham — over 3m1f and 2m4f on good/soft — showed what he is capable of producing at his best. The Kempton sixth on good to soft before surgery sits below his true level.
The Going — Soft
Ayr is soft. The going update confirmed soft, good to soft in places on Thursday with more rain overnight. Hoe Joly Smoke's two Cheltenham thirds came on good to soft — similar conditions to what he faces today. The Cheltenham runs were his best recent performances by some distance. The ground today matches the ground on which he showed his best form.
The strong pace scenario that Timeform predict — multiple front-runners in the field — suits Hoe Joly Smoke specifically. He is a hold-up horse. Harry Skelton's instructions will be to settle him off the pace, let the pace horses go, and produce him with one run in the closing stages. On soft ground over 2m4f with a strong early gallop set by Donnacha, Jipcot and the down-in-trip Myretown, the conditions for that tactics are ideal.
The Market
Donnacha goes off at 9/4 favourite — won at Cheltenham in January and faces a 5lb rise. He is a genuine contender. Hoe Joly Smoke at 9/2 represents a price that does not fully account for the Skelton targeting angle, the wind surgery preparation, or the RPR-to-OR structural advantage. The forecasting suggests a competitive race but Hoe Joly Smoke's combination of trainer record, specific preparation and form on this going type is as strong as any horse in the field.
The Honest Caveat
His last two starts produced a fifth and a sixth. The form figures on the right end of his string are not encouraging in isolation. The key assessment from the expert view acknowledges this directly — "he hasn't quite been at the top of his game on his last two starts." The wind surgery is the specific reason offered for why those runs should be discounted. If the surgery has not had the desired effect, today's performance may look more like recent outings than the Cheltenham thirds. The stake should reflect this uncertainty — this is a strong each-way selection rather than a banker.
The Bottom Line
Skelton wins five from nine in this race. Skelton had other entries and ran only this horse. Wind surgery since last run — timed specifically for this target. RPR 153 vs OR 130 — 23-point structural gap. Two Cheltenham thirds on good/soft — matching today's conditions. Harry Skelton rides. Strong pace scenario suits his hold-up style. At 3.50 on Grand National day at Ayr, this is today's NAP.
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