Dan Skelton published his runners blog on Ladbrokes this morning. On Diamond Dealer he wrote: "We have had this race in mind for Diamond Dealer from mid-season. He looks great at home and he's maintaining his training. He looks as good as he's done all year. The track will suit him and there is a lot in his favour."
When a trainer who is on the verge of the British trainers' championship title tells you a horse has been targeted from mid-season and currently looks the best he has all year — that is not filler for a blog. That is a trainer telling you exactly what today's selection represents. This is the NAP at 13:45 on Scottish Grand National day at Ayr.
The Selection
Diamond Dealer is a seven-year-old gelding trained by Dan Skelton at Alcester in Warwickshire, ridden by Harry Skelton in the CPMS Novices' Champion Handicap Chase over 3m20y on soft ground at Ayr at 13:45. Form reads --1-1-P-2-1. OR 123, RPR 147, TS 139. Last ran 28 days ago at Kelso — won. Three chase wins this season, one second, one pulled up.
Skelton's Mid-Season Targeting
The trainer's blog is the central piece of evidence. "We have had this race in mind for Diamond Dealer from mid-season." Mid-season targeting in jump racing means a trainer identified a race in November or December and built an entire campaign around peaking for it. Every run Diamond Dealer has had since that decision was taken served a purpose — building fitness, finding the right mark, establishing soft-ground form. His four placed or winning runs this chase season are not a series of opportunistic entries. They are preparation steps for today.
The expert view on the card confirms it: "clearly on the up for his top trainer, who has won two of the last six runnings." Skelton winning two of the last six runnings of a novice handicap chase is a specific statistical advantage in a race most trainers approach without the same systematic preparation.
Three Chase Wins This Season
Diamond Dealer's chase form this season reads: won (2m7f, good/good to soft), won (2m7f, good to soft), pulled up, second (3m, soft — short-headed by I Wish You at Wetherby), won (2m5f, good to soft at Kelso). Three wins from five completions in his first chase season. The pulled up run is the only blot — excluded from his otherwise consistent form line.
The expert view specifically references the Wetherby run — "short-headed by I Wish You at Wetherby (3m, soft)" — as a key piece of evidence. He was beaten by a nose over three miles on soft ground. Today is three miles on soft ground. That Wetherby near-miss is direct form over this trip in these conditions. A horse that was beaten by a head over the same trip on the same ground type is a horse that has already proved it can do what today demands.
The RPR to OR Gap — 24 Points
RPR 147. OR 123. A 24-point gap. His Kelso win 28 days ago was his most recent performance — won comfortably enough to produce an RPR significantly above his official mark. The handicapper raises horses after wins but rarely catches up with a rapidly improving seven-year-old in his first chase season. Diamond Dealer is running 24 points below his demonstrated peak in official rating terms. That is the structural value built into today's price.
The Soft Ground
All of Diamond Dealer's best runs have come on good to soft or soft — the Wetherby near-miss was on soft, his Kelso win on good to soft. Ayr is soft today following several days of rain on Scotland's west coast. His form profile was built in the conditions he faces today. This is not a horse being asked to handle ground it hasn't seen before.
Skelton's Record in This Race
Two wins from six runnings. In a novice handicap chase field where most trainers arrive without specific preparation for this race, a trainer who has won a third of the renewals in recent years carries measurable advantage. The expert view cites it directly as part of the selection rationale.
The Main Danger
Caughtinyourtrance is identified by Sporting Life as the main danger — the step back up in trip considered a positive. Just Over Land, Kdeux Saint Fray and I Wish You all carry respect. I Wish You beat Diamond Dealer by a head at Wetherby — that rival returning is the most relevant threat in the field. On today's evidence, Diamond Dealer is better than that run suggested.
Dan Skelton — Championship Context
Dan Skelton is on the verge of becoming British champion trainer — leading by over £2 million. He has five runners at Ayr today across the full card. He is not here for the scenery. He is here to accumulate prize money and demonstrate his yard's dominance across the final weeks of the season. Every runner he sends to Ayr today has been assessed as having a genuine winning chance — that is how championship-chasing operations work at this stage of the season.
The Bottom Line
Targeted from mid-season by the trainer. Three chase wins this season. Beaten by a head over this trip on this ground at Wetherby — near-miss form directly relevant today. RPR 147 vs OR 123 — 24-point structural gap. Soft ground matches his winning form profile. Skelton won 2 of the last 6 runnings. Harry Skelton rides. Trainer's own words this morning: "He looks as good as he's done all year. There is a lot in his favour." At 4.50, this is today's NAP at 13:45.
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