See The Fire returns to York having demolished this field by 12 lengths on her second outing last season and shaped well on her recent reappearance at Nottingham. That previous York performance sets the standard here. Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for today is at 15:30.
The Selection
See The Fire is a five-year-old mare trained by Andrew Balding at Kingsclere, ridden by Oisin Murphy in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies' Stakes (Group 2) over 1m2f56y on good ground at York. Form reads 3-4-2-9---1. OR 116, RPR 133, TS 121. Last ran 18 days ago.
York Form — 12-Length Win on This Track
See The Fire’s standout performance came at York last season when she won this race by 12 lengths on good to firm ground.
That was not a narrow victory or a race that fell apart late. It was dominance. She travelled strongly, quickened clear, and put distance between herself and the field in decisive fashion.
That level of performance, achieved on this track and over this trip, is directly relevant to today’s race.
Group 1 Form — Close Second in the Prix de l’Opera
Following that York win, she stepped into Group 1 company and ran consistently well.
Her best effort came when finishing a close second in the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp over 1m2f on soft ground. She was narrowly beaten but finished well clear of the remainder.
That performance confirms she can compete at a higher level than this.
Reappearance — Nottingham Win
She returned this season at Nottingham over 1m2f and won at 1-3.
The margin was not wide, but the manner of the performance matters. She travelled comfortably through the race and had control of the contest before being pushed out late.
It was a controlled reappearance rather than a fully extended effort.
Second Run of Season — Expected Improvement
Today is her second run of the campaign.
Horses from this yard often improve for their first run back, and this looks like a setup where she can step forward from her Nottingham performance.
She is likely to be closer to peak fitness here.
Andrew Balding — 21% Strike Rate
Andrew Balding’s yard is operating at a 21% strike rate over the past 14 days.
That is a strong level of form. Horses are running well and holding their level.
There is no concern about stable condition.
Oisin Murphy
Oisin Murphy takes the ride.
This is a high-confidence booking. Murphy is one of the most effective riders in these types of races, particularly when controlling pace and positioning on galloping tracks like York.
His presence adds further confidence.
The RPR to OR Gap — 17 Points
RPR 133, OR 116. A 17-point gap.
This is a significant structural edge.
RPR reflects demonstrated ability. OR determines the weight carried. A gap of this size indicates the horse has already achieved a level well above today’s rating.
In Group 2 company, this kind of margin is a strong positive signal.
The Going
Good ground at York.
Her dominant York win came on good to firm, and she has also performed on softer surfaces at Group 1 level.
Today’s conditions present no issue.
The Main Danger
The main danger is likely to be a rival who arrives fully race-fit and capable of improving past current ratings.
In Group races, lightly raced or progressive fillies can take a step forward and challenge established form.
If See The Fire does not progress from her reappearance, she could be vulnerable.
The Bottom Line
Won this race by 12 lengths last season. Group 1 form when second in the Prix de l’Opera. Comfortable Nottingham reappearance win. Andrew Balding operating at 21%. Oisin Murphy booked. RPR 133 vs OR 116 gives a 17lb edge.
Second run of the season should bring improvement. Proven at York. Proven at the trip.
At 6/5, this is Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for today.
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Facts verified via search on May 4, 2026.