Road To Home was beaten a neck in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham on March 12. He was delivered with what the expert view describes as "what seemed a winning challenge" under Patrick Mullins before Ask Brewster battled back to deny him by the narrowest possible margin. Ask Brewster is in today's field. He now meets Road To Home on 6lb worse terms than at Cheltenham. Today's ground is good — Road To Home's preferred conditions. Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for the British jumps season finale at 15:30.
The Selection
Road To Home is a seven-year-old gelding trained by Willie Mullins at Muine Bheag in Co Carlow, ridden by Patrick Mullins in the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase over 3m4f146y on good ground at Sandown. Form reads 3-5-3-3-P-2. OR 137, RPR 157, TS 138. Last ran 44 days ago at Cheltenham. 14 runners. Willie Mullins yard 24% over 14 days.
The Kim Muir Form — Beaten a Neck, Weight Turned
March 12. Cheltenham Festival. Kim Muir Handicap Chase. 3m2f. Good. 23 runners. Patrick Mullins. Ask Brewster won. Road To Home second. Neck. The Sky Sports racecard describes Road To Home's run precisely: "took keen hold, chased leaders, prominent 5th, headway to go second approaching 2 out, ridden before last, edged left and led final 110yds, kept on well, headed final strides."
He led in the final 110 yards. He was headed in the final strides. A neck. The expert view says he was "delivered with what seemed a winning challenge." That reading is accurate — he hit the front and was caught only by Ask Brewster's extraordinary gameness near the line.
Today Ask Brewster carries 6lb more relative to Road To Home than at Cheltenham. At Cheltenham, Road To Home carried 11st 0lb and Ask Brewster carried 10st 11lb — Ask Brewster was 3lb lighter. Today the weights have shifted by 6lb in Road To Home's favour. A neck at Cheltenham on 3lb worse terms for Road To Home. Six pounds swung his way today. The form line points clearly.
The Scottish National Withdrawal — and Why It Matters
Road To Home was entered as Willie Mullins's sole runner for the Scottish Grand National last Saturday at Ayr. He was withdrawn before the race due to the heavy ground. The going at Ayr had deteriorated significantly from the good conditions expected earlier in the week.
The withdrawal decision tells you one specific thing about Road To Home: connections need good ground. Today's going at Sandown is good. The condition that prompted withdrawal from Ayr is not present at Sandown today. He arrives fresh — 44 days since Cheltenham, no Scottish National effort to carry — and on a surface that suits him.
His Sandown Record
Road To Home has run at Sandown twice and finished third on both occasions. He is not a stranger to the track and has handled the stiff uphill Sandown finish each time he has faced it. Third is not a winning record but it confirms the track suits him — he finishes competitive on this course rather than running below form.
Read Horse Racing's profile confirms: "Loves good ground and has run well at Sandown in the past — third both times. Off a career-high mark now (137) but is unexposed over this staying trip and over fences in general."
The RPR to OR Gap — 20 Points
RPR 157. OR 137. A 20-point gap. Horseracing.net's preview notes he "remains unexposed as a staying chaser" and "has shaped as if this sort of test could bring about more improvement." The expert view on the card echoes this directly: "up 6lb but has to be in serious calculations." A horse running 20 points below its demonstrated ability in official rating terms, described as unexposed at this kind of test, carries structural value that the current market may not fully price.
The Step Up in Trip
The honest caveat in this selection is the trip. Today's race is 3m4f146y — the furthest Road To Home has been asked is 3m2f at Cheltenham. He steps up a quarter mile beyond his proven stamina limit. The expert view acknowledges this directly — "furthest he's been" was 3m2f.
The case that the trip is not a disqualifying concern rests on two things. First, his breeding and racing style suggest a horse that will stay. He has shown ability to stay strongly at 3m2f and his form at longer distances over hurdles earlier in his career was solid. Second, at Cheltenham he was still travelling well with two fences to jump in a truly run 3m2f race — a horse that is finding the limit of its stamina does not lead in the final 110 yards of a competitive Festival handicap.
The trip is an open question. It is the central uncertainty in the selection. At 13/2 it is a question the market has already priced, which is why backing him at this price rather than a shorter one is appropriate.
Patrick Mullins — Grand National-Winning Jockey
Patrick Mullins won the 2025 Grand National at Aintree on Nick Rockett. He is one of the most accomplished amateur jockeys in the sport's history. He rode Road To Home at Cheltenham and had the race won before Ask Brewster clawed it back. His booking today confirms the stable's belief in the horse's fitness and ability.
The Key Rivals
Havaila (Gary and Josh Moore) is likely favourite — won the Sussex National at Plumpton over this trip and is the horse most strongly backed to stay 3m4f. Ten top-three finishes from twelve chase starts. Carries 10lb more than Road To Home.
Resplendent Grey (Sean Bowen, Olly Murphy) won this race last year and bids for back-to-back wins for the first time since Topsham Bay in 1993. Rated 10lb higher than last year's winning mark. Sean Bowen has won this race three times and will be crowned champion jockey today.
Montregard (Patrick Mullins second choice if not on Road To Home — in fact Stan Sheppard rides Montregard, JP McManus colours) won at Ascot in February. Kap Vert ran behind him at Ascot in January and went on to win the Scottish National. Montregard is the Andy Newton/Read Horse Racing selection today.
Ask Brewster (Shane Cotter) won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He beat Road To Home by a neck that day but carries 6lb more today on a longer trip — 3m4f vs 3m2f.
The Trend Warning on Favourites
The bet365 Gold Cup has produced only one winning outright market leader since 1991. The Race has not been kind to favourite backers across more than three decades. Road To Home at 13/2 is not the favourite — and that is itself a positive structural feature of the selection.
The Bottom Line
Beaten a neck in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham — led in the final 110 yards, headed in the final strides. Ask Brewster today carries 6lb more than he did at Cheltenham on 3lb worse terms. Withdrawn from Scottish National due to heavy ground — arrives at Sandown fresh on good ground. Third both times at Sandown. RPR 157 vs OR 137 — 20-point gap. Unexposed at this trip — the honest caveat, addressed by his Cheltenham staying effort. Patrick Mullins. Willie Mullins at 24% in 14 days. Class 1, £98,473, British jumps season finale. At 13/2, this is Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for today.
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Facts verified via web search April 25 2026. Sources: Sky Sports racecard, Read Horse Racing runners and trends, Paddy Power News Gold Cup trends, Horseracing.net tips, BAR1 Betting Sandown preview.