The favourite Off The Jury pulled up at Haydock three furlongs from home last time out. He returns as market leader at 9/4 on the back of a race he did not finish. Gee Force Flyer, meanwhile, has finished in the top three on every one of his four hurdle starts, all on soft or good to soft ground — the conditions he faces today at Perth. Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for Perth Festival Day 1 is at 13:40.
The Selection
Gee Force Flyer is a six-year-old gelding trained by Olly Murphy at Wilmcote in Warwickshire, ridden by Sean Bowen in the Welcome To The Perth Festival Maiden Hurdle over 2m4f35y on good to soft, soft in places ground at Perth. Form reads 1---3-2-2-3. OR 120, RPR 130, TS 124. Last ran 46 days ago. 10 runners.
The Sandown Form — Third of 17 in a Competitive Handicap
Gee Force Flyer's most recent start was third of 17 at Sandown in the EBF Final in March — a competitive handicap hurdle over 2m4f on soft ground. The Sky Sports racecard confirms the run precisely: "towards rear, steady headway after 3 out, pushed along after 2 out, took third final flight, kept on one pace, 3rd of 17, 2¾ lengths behind Scorpio Rising."
Third of 17 in a competitive EBF Final at Sandown is not a quiet maiden placing. The EBF Final draws horses from across the season's maiden hurdle programme — finishing third in that race on handicap debut, from 17 runners, on soft ground at 2m4f, is exactly the form profile that translates to today's class level. The expert view on the card makes this explicit: "strong claims on the back of that."
Four Hurdle Starts, Four Top-Three Finishes
Form 1---3-2-2-3 tells a specific story. The 1 is his point-to-point win. The three dashes are point form. Then four hurdle starts: third, second, second, third. Not one finish outside the top three. Not one run that suggested he was out of his depth or unsuited to the conditions.
Every one of those four hurdle starts came on soft or good to soft ground. Today's going at Perth is good to soft, soft in places. There is no going uncertainty here — he has run his best form on exactly these conditions in every race he has entered.
The Favourite's Question Mark
Off The Jury is forecast at 9/4. His last run was a pulled up at Haydock in a Class 2 handicap hurdle over 3m on good to soft in February. The Sky Sports racecard is direct: "took keen hold, midfield, not fluent 8th, pressed leaders 3 out, hampered 2 out, weakened and pulled up before last."
A horse that pulled up last time returning as market favourite carries a question the price does not fully acknowledge. Connections clearly believe he is better than that performance — he would not be declared otherwise. But backing a horse at 9/4 whose most recent form figure is P requires confidence in a recovery that has not yet been demonstrated on a racecourse.
Trotbot specifically flags pulled-up form in returning horses as a probability discount. The market prices Off The Jury as the most likely winner. The data prices the uncertainty of an undemonstrated recovery more conservatively.
Olly Murphy's Record in This Race
Murphy won the Welcome To The Perth Festival Maiden Hurdle in 2021 with Jetaway Joey and in 2022 with Sporty Jim. Two wins from the last five runnings is a specific record in a race that most trainers approach without the same track knowledge. Murphy's Warwickshire base means Perth is not a routine outing — when he sends a horse to Scotland for the festival opener, the decision has been made with confidence.
Sean Bowen
Sean Bowen rides. The William Hill Perth Festival preview published this morning specifically identifies the Bowen and Murphy combination as one to note, naming them as their NAP for a different race on today's card. When the Bowen-Murphy partnership arrives at a Scottish festival with a horse in form, the combination carries specific weight.
The RPR to OR Gap — 10 Points
RPR 130, OR 120. A 10-point gap. At Class 4 maiden hurdle level, running 10 points below demonstrated ability in official rating terms is a meaningful structural advantage. Trotbot weights this gap as evidence that the handicapper has not yet fully reflected the horse's ceiling — and today's maiden conditions mean he races without the weight penalty a handicap would impose.
The Going
Good to soft, soft in places at Perth on Wednesday. The course is on the banks of the River Tay in Perthshire — April ground here is typically testing and holds moisture well. Every one of Gee Force Flyer's hurdle runs came on soft or good to soft. He has never run on anything faster. The going today is not a variable — it is confirmation of his ideal conditions.
The Main Danger
Newbrook Diamond at 5/2 is the second market selection — an Irish pointer who showed pace in front at Fairyhouse last time before fading. His Fairyhouse run was on yielding to soft where he finished seventh of 25. The form is not as compelling as Gee Force Flyer's consistent placed run at Sandown but he offers pace and Irish point experience at a shorter price. Expensive Emotion — a winner of a 3m point at Lingstown in Ireland in November — makes her hurdles debut for Adrian Keatley and is noted in the Perth Festival preview as "of great interest."
The Bottom Line
Top three on all four hurdle starts, all on soft or good to soft. Third of 17 in competitive EBF Final at Sandown last time — expert view: "strong claims on the back of that." RPR 130 vs OR 120. Olly Murphy won this race in 2021 and 2022. Sean Bowen retained. Favourite Off The Jury pulled up last time — a question the price at 9/4 does not fully reflect. Good to soft ground at Perth matches every hurdle performance in his career. At 1.91, this is Trotbot's highest-confidence selection for today.
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Facts verified via web search on April 22 2026. Sources: Sporting Life racecard, Sky Sports Racing racecard, irishracing.com previous winners, William Hill Perth Festival preview.