When a trainer bypasses the Cheltenham Festival Supreme Novices' Hurdle to target a Grade 3 at Naas, it is not an admission that the horse isn't good enough for the Festival — it is a deliberate placement decision. Noel Meade knows Blake has the form to run competitively at the highest level. The decision to skip the Supreme and instead "set the standard" in the Kingsfurze Novice Hurdle tells you everything about the intent here: this is a horse that is being aimed at a race he is expected to win, not one being managed away from stronger opposition. With RPR 155 the highest in the field and Grade 1 form already banked, Blake is the Naas tips selection that leads today's card.
The Selection
Blake is a five-year-old gelding trained by Noel Meade at Castletown, Co. Meath, partnered by Sam Ewing in the BAR 1 Betting Kingsfurze Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) over 2m77y on heavy ground at Naas. His OR of 139 sits 16lb below his RPR of 155 — a gap that reflects the class of opposition he has already faced and the level at which his best performances have been delivered. The form figures of 2---1-2-5 build from a Flat foundation into a novice hurdle campaign that has taken in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company before arriving here.
Form and Class
The career arc is the story. Three Flat turf wins, including a Leopardstown premier handicap on heavy ground — that heavy-ground Flat victory is directly relevant today and establishes both his conditions preference and his class ceiling before he ever jumped a hurdle. The transition to hurdling has been smooth: he won the Down Royal maiden on his first start over obstacles, then finished second in the Grade 2 Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, beaten by just a head by Koktail Brut in one of the season's most competitive novice hurdle contests. His fifth-place finish at Grade 1 level in the Dublin Racing Festival was, in the expert view's words, "not a bad effort either" — Grade 1 company at the DRF is the benchmark of Irish novice hurdling, and running in that sphere before returning to Grade 3 level at Naas represents a significant class advantage over most of his rivals today.
The key signal is Meade's decision to skip the Supreme Novices' Hurdle — where Blake was a possible entry — in favour of this race. The expert view states it directly: he "skips the Supreme for this and sets the standard." Connections have identified this as the right target, and in Grade 3 company at Naas on heavy ground, the form profile suggests he should dominate.
The Connections
Noel Meade is a trainer with two wins in the Lawlor's Of Naas Novice Hurdle and a deep understanding of the Grade 3 Naas novice hurdle programme. The 0W/7R 14-day strike rate requires the same honest treatment as the other selections this week where yard form has been modest in the short window — the horse's own form and Meade's placement logic are the arguments, not recent yard stats. Sam Ewing, who won the Grade 1 Lawlor's Novice Hurdle at Naas on The Yellow Clay in 2025, provides a rider with Grade 1 winning experience at this track. That combination — Meade placing carefully, Ewing with course form at the highest level — backs the selection at every level.
Why Today
Heavy ground at Naas over 2m77y suits a horse whose best Flat win came on heavy at Leopardstown and whose jumping career has consistently shown he handles testing conditions. The Grade 3 field, while containing Lazare De Star (RPR 151) for Gordon Elliott and Davy Crockett for Willie Mullins, is a step back from the Grade 1 level Blake has already contested. Davy Crockett was beaten in the DRF Grade 1 after an impressive summer debut — connections will hope for a bounce-back but the form currently points to a horse needing to rediscover his best. Lazare De Star at RPR 151 is the danger and the form book acknowledges him as the rival to beat. The form gap between RPR 155 and 151 is narrow, but Blake's course suitability, conditions preference, and trainer's explicit targeting of this race as the right spot give the selection its edge.
The Opposition
Lazare De Star, trained by Gordon Elliott with Jack Kennedy aboard at RPR 151, has been runner-up in his last two starts — consistent placed form but unable to win at this level. Davy Crockett's promising Galway debut has been followed by a poor DRF run and a question mark over his current level. The remainder of the six-runner field sit at RPR 142 or below, well behind Blake's 155.
The Bottom Line
Leopardstown handicap winner on heavy ground. Down Royal maiden winner. Grade 2 Royal Bond runner-up — beaten only a head. Grade 1 DRF fifth — no disgrace at the highest level. RPR 155 leads the field. Noel Meade deliberately skips Cheltenham to target this. Sam Ewing with Grade 1 course form at Naas. Heavy ground ticking every conditions box. At 2.20, this is the Naas tips banker of the day — a horse being aimed at a Grade 3 he is built to win.
Want daily tips delivered to your inbox? Join thousands getting free tips every morning. Sign up free at horseracingoracleai.com →
Gambling involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose.