Dan Skelton is not a trainer who overstates a horse. His Ladbrokes blog is a model of measured, careful language — a sentence or two per runner, honest about flaws, direct about potential. So when he describes Ink Black Heart as "a very nice big chestnut horse" and adds that "the last five percent is still in there," that is the kind of quiet confidence from a top trainer that the Exeter tips radar should be picking up. A five-year-old gelding by Falco, twice placed in bumpers, arriving at a course his trainer believes will suit him, with Harry Skelton in the saddle — this is our NAP of the day at 16:40.
The Selection
Ink Black Heart is a five-year-old gelding trained by Dan Skelton at Alcester in Warwickshire, partnered by Harry Skelton in the Exeter Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 2 Elimination) over 2m161y on good to soft ground. He carries an RPR of 110 — a figure that stands out in a Category 2 bumper — with a TS of 66 reflecting the nature of a horse whose profile is still developing. His form reads 4---2: fourth on debut, then placed more recently, with an 80-day absence behind him that Skelton has clearly used to prepare him for today.
Form and Class
The debut at Wincanton in January 2025 — a newcomers' bumper on good to soft — tells a story worth reading carefully. Ink Black Heart finished fourth at 25/1 in a field that included Bossman Jack, who won the race and subsequently went on to feature in the Dan Skelton Cheltenham Festival entries for 2026, described as "a horse with a lot of ability" who had "improved nicely through the season." When your bumper debut was in a race subsequently validated by a horse of that calibre, a fourth-place finish at a big price becomes a form reference point rather than a disappointment.
Since that Wincanton run, Skelton bought the horse — a deliberate, considered acquisition — and the trainer's words from his December blog are the centrepiece of the case: "He ran well in the bumper at Wincanton. We bought him since and like what we see. He is a big horse who should like this track. We have done lots with him but the last five percent is still in there." Three things stand out from that short statement. First, the trainer bought him specifically after seeing what he could do — this was a purchase made on evidence, not hope. Second, he explicitly identifies Exeter as a track that suits the horse. Third, "the last five percent is still in there" is Skelton's way of saying the horse has more to give, that today is not the ceiling. An 80-day break since his runner-up outing on his second start suggests the yard has been patient rather than pushing — and today is the occasion they have pointed him at.
Why Today
The Exeter bumper card on a Monday in mid-March is exactly the kind of race a yard like Skelton's targets for a well-regarded improver — a Category 2 elimination with manageable competition, a track the trainer has already said suits the horse, and a long straight that rewards staying types. Skelton fields a Warwickshire-based string that travels well, and Harry Skelton's booking on a horse his brother has described in warm terms means the stable's confidence is not in doubt. The RPR of 110 arriving into this field is the standout number — in a Category 2 bumper at Exeter on a Monday card, a horse rated 110 with a trainer who says he has more in the locker is entitled to be favourite, and entitled to be our selection.
The Opposition
The racecard from Racing Post shows a field that includes Karpenn (Venetia Williams, Charlie Deutsch, OR 116 but windsurgery and questions to answer), My Boy Aaron (RPR 114, Robert Stephens), and River Kwai (Paul Nicholls, Harry Cobden, on debut). River Kwai is the one to respect — a Nicholls debutant with Cobden up is never to be dismissed in a bumper — but a newcomer carries unknown quantity while Ink Black Heart brings two outings of progressive evidence behind him. Lingering Glance, Mighty Zeus and I'llhaveabitofthat complete the field without obvious claims against the principals.
The Bottom Line
Debut form franked by Bossman Jack, a subsequent Festival-entered improver. Runner-up on second start. Bought by Dan Skelton after the Wincanton run specifically — a purchase made on evidence. Trainer says explicitly he suits Exeter and that the last five percent remains. RPR 110 in a Category 2 field. Harry Skelton up. Eighty days freshened and pointed here deliberately. At 2.50, this is the Monday NAP — a fresh, well-regarded improver from a top yard in the right race at the right track.
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