Tupero has won twice in 2026 already. The last of those wins, at Redcar 24 days ago over 1m6f, came with something left in the tank according to the expert view. The handicapper has responded with a 4lb rise. The form says that rise does not go far enough. At 3/1 in the Dine In Sherwoods Restaurant Handicap at Nottingham today over 1m6f on good ground, he is today's NAP.
Two Wins in 2026 — The Form Behind Them
Tupero is a 4yo gelding trained by David O'Meara at Upper Helmsley in North Yorkshire — a French recruit who has found his feet quickly since joining the yard. His form reads 6-1-2-4-2-1 and the direction of travel is clearly upward. The two wins this season have come in handicap company, both over a mile and six furlongs, showing that this is a horse who has found his trip and is building on each run.
The Redcar win 24 days ago is the key piece of evidence. He won a 1m6f handicap and did so with something to spare — the expert view says he had something in the tank, which means the winning margin understated how comfortable the victory was. A horse who wins a handicap while not fully extended is a horse the handicapper will raise. The question is whether the rise reflects the true extent of the advantage.
A 4lb rise for a win with something left in the tank is a lenient response. The handicapper has acknowledged the win but has not fully accounted for the ease with which it came. That gap between what Tupero showed at Redcar and what the new mark reflects is where today's opportunity sits.
The OR vs RPR Gap
OR 64. RPR 82. An 18lb gap between the official mark and what the Racing Post's independent assessment says this horse has achieved. In plain terms — he is running off a weight that suggests a horse rated 64, but performing like one rated 82. In a Class 5 handicap at Nottingham, that kind of advantage does not come along often. The handicapper is playing catch-up with a horse whose form has moved faster than the ratings have followed.
Why Nottingham Suits
Nottingham is a flat, left-handed, galloping track — the kind of course that suits a horse who can travel and stay. Tupero has won twice over 1m6f, a trip that asks genuine stamina questions. A horse who wins that trip at Redcar and comes back over the same distance at a fair, galloping track like Nottingham is in familiar territory. Good ground is what his wins have come on. No concern there at all.
David O'Meara and David Nolan
O'Meara's Upper Helmsley yard is running at 6% over the last 14 days — 3 winners from 50 runners. That is quiet by any measure and the honest reading is that the yard is not in its hottest form right now. But the context matters here — this is a horse who is clearly in excellent individual form regardless of the stable's broader numbers, and the expert view specifically notes he is in excellent form for his current yard.
David Nolan rides. He is one of the most experienced jockeys on the northern circuit and has a strong relationship with O'Meara's operation. Continuity in the saddle on a horse who has won twice with the same jockey is a positive sign.
The Bottom Line
Two wins in 2026 over the same trip as today. Something left in the tank at Redcar last time. Only 4lb rise from a lenient handicapper. RPR 18lb above the official rating. Good ground matching his winning conditions. Nottingham's galloping track suiting a confirmed stayer. At 3/1, Tupero is today's NAP — good value for a horse whose form is ahead of his mark.
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