The Cheltenham Festival has not yet produced a back-to-back winner in the Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase. Dinoblue is here to change that. The nine-year-old mare was second in this race in 2024 on soft ground, then went one better in 2025 on good to soft — and she arrives today having posted easy wins at Fairyhouse and Naas on her last two starts, both times as a heavily odds-on favourite, both times giving the impression that the race is well within her compass. The expert view does not equivocate: "she's the one to beat." This is our Festival NAP at 14:40 on Gold Cup day.
The Selection
Dinoblue is a nine-year-old mare trained by Willie Mullins at Muine Bheag, Co Carlow, partnered by Mark Walsh in the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase over 2m4f127y on good ground at Cheltenham. She arrives as market leader with an OR of 159, RPR of 172, and TS of 151. Her form figures this season read 1---1-2-1-1, with the early dashes representing a stumble at Navan in November — the one wrinkle in an otherwise polished campaign — before she put that behind her emphatically with two dominant performances at Fairyhouse and Naas. The Mullins yard has operated at 20% from 89 runners over the past 14 days. Mark Walsh, who won the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Majborough earlier in the week, takes the ride.
Form and Class
The case begins with the Festival record itself. Runner-up in 2024. Winner in 2025. Dinoblue has now run in this race twice and finished in the first two on both occasions — the definition of a Cheltenham Mares' Chase specialist. The RPR of 172 is her highest career figure and was achieved at Cheltenham last year, which means the track conditions and course configuration have already extracted the best from her.
The seasonal reappearance at Navan in November produced jumping errors and a defeat — the one moment of uncertainty that the market has priced in. The expert view directly addresses it: she "made mistakes when beaten on return to action at Navan in November and has since posted easy wins at Fairyhouse (Grade 3) and Naas (Listed) when heavily odds-on each time." The Navan run is bracketed as a seasonal shakedown, not a form line. The response to it — two consecutive odds-on wins in better and better company — is the relevant evidence. Multiple sources this morning agree: her jumping has improved markedly since that November return, and a mare who finds her feet mid-season and then wins twice heavily odds-on is a mare who arrives sharp, not cautious.
Good ground at Cheltenham today suits. Her 2024 runner-up came on soft, her 2025 win on good to soft — both visits to Cheltenham have produced the best of her, and the drier conditions today if anything represent a more comfortable surface than last year's winning conditions.
Why Today
The historical footnote matters here as context rather than as a barrier. No mare has won back-to-back renewals of the Mares' Chase — but this is only the sixth year of the race's existence, which makes the trend a product of small sample size rather than meaningful pattern. More relevant is that Dinoblue's profile — defending champion, top-rated in the field, form sharp since early-season stumble, course form exceptional, jockey and trainer at the peak of the Festival week — ticks every box you would write for a successful defender. Willie Mullins has trained three of the five previous winners of this race. Mark Walsh won on Dinoblue last year and returns on the same partner today.
The Opposition
Panic Attack from Dan Skelton's yard is the market's principal danger and deserves genuine respect. The ten-year-old has won a handicap double at Cheltenham and Newbury and added Listed success at Newbury in January, arriving in form and with a profile that suggests she could improve again at Festival level. Skelton's yard has not won this race before, but the trainer knows Cheltenham and Panic Attack is consistent and honest. She is, however, being asked to beat a defending champion rated 13lb clear of her, who has already proven she handles this exact course, trip, and ground. Spindleberry is Mullins' stablemate — five wins from six, Listed Doncaster winner, a progressive profile that has attracted each-way interest at the bigger price. The Doncaster Listed has served as a springboard to this race before. Only By Night, runner-up in the 2025 Arkle, is interesting for Gavin Cromwell — his yard won the Mares' Chase in 2024 with Limerick Lace — but a return to hurdle form would need to translate convincingly to this trip over fences.
The Bottom Line
Runner-up 2024. Winner 2025. RPR 172 at this track. Seasonal return wobble answered emphatically with back-to-back odds-on wins. Good ground suits. Mullins three from five in this race. Mark Walsh, last year's winning jockey, back on the same mare. Expert view says "she's the one to beat." At 3.20, this is a measured Festival NAP — Panic Attack's credentials are real and worth acknowledging, but the form and Cheltenham course record sit clearly with the defending champion.
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